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@Offthewall - Equipment Pack Odds

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  • @Offthewall - Equipment Pack Odds

    What are the odds of actually pulling any SS equipment in the Prestige Equipment Packs (S-SS)? I ask, because during the current event you get 6 pieces per season on Master. So far out of 18 pieces, I’ve received zero SS. This would appear that either I have really bad luck or the odds are especially low.

    Second question: Are the odds of pulling SS lowered during this event?

    Something just feels a bit off or the odds are so low that it’s pointless to even try to get SS in Prestige Packs and the only real way to get SS is via SS only packs. Any chance we can get some actual data on the odds? Is it 1%? 2%? 0.5%?

  • #2
    Just curious what everyone else is seeing. I’m at 3/40 now. At least I got a couple, but even at 7.5%, that’s pretty lame to call it “S-SS”. It’s really just S with a very limited chance to get SS.

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    • #3
      I guess they want to keep it a mystery. For the community, as reference, i got 3 SS out of 52 packs. So, looks like a little under 6% chance of SS. Would love to hear how others faired, because if we know the rates, we can decide if it’s worth spending CTs for these types of rewards.

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      • #4
        Here are the odds according the the Draft Probability list.

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        • #5
          Thanks bennok! Very interesting and thanks for sharing!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by SunDevilStang View Post
            What are the odds of actually pulling any SS equipment in the Prestige Equipment Packs (S-SS)? I ask, because during the current event you get 6 pieces per season on Master. So far out of 18 pieces, I’ve received zero SS. This would appear that either I have really bad luck or the odds are especially low.

            Second question: Are the odds of pulling SS lowered during this event?

            Something just feels a bit off or the odds are so low that it’s pointless to even try to get SS in Prestige Packs and the only real way to get SS is via SS only packs. Any chance we can get some actual data on the odds? Is it 1%? 2%? 0.5%?
            Hey SunDevilStang,

            Sorry for the late reply, here are the odds for the Equipment Packs.



            If you would like more information on all Draft probabilities, you can click on the link below for the full details.

            [See All Draft Probabilities]

            Thank you,
            OffTheWall

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            • #7
              OffTheWall

              Something seems broken. I’m now at 4 SS and 263 S. That’s a clip of 1.4% and not a small sample size. Are certain accounts targeted to not get good odds? For example, are my odds lower than average because I haven’t spent money recently? Something is definitely off, so curious what happens behind the scenes that could cause the real results to be so drastically different from the published results?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by SunDevilStang View Post
                OffTheWall

                Something seems broken. I’m now at 4 SS and 263 S. That’s a clip of 1.4% and not a small sample size. Are certain accounts targeted to not get good odds? For example, are my odds lower than average because I haven’t spent money recently? Something is definitely off, so curious what happens behind the scenes that could cause the real results to be so drastically different from the published results?
                Hey SunDevilStang,

                All GM's have the same probabilities regardless of how much money they have spent in the game. If you feel you are experiencing an issue, please contact Customer Support and they will assist you.

                Customer Support: https://customer.withhive.com/

                Thank you for your understanding,
                OffTheWall

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by SunDevilStang View Post
                  OffTheWall

                  Something seems broken. I’m now at 4 SS and 263 S. That’s a clip of 1.4% and not a small sample size. Are certain accounts targeted to not get good odds? For example, are my odds lower than average because I haven’t spent money recently? Something is definitely off, so curious what happens behind the scenes that could cause the real results to be so drastically different from the published results?
                  Anything that is based on odds is broken in this game. If you keep track of how many boosts fail with a 50% chance of success you will find that the vast majority of them fail when the fail rate and success rate should be close to equal.

                  With equipment I think the average overall rate of SS equipment is close to 10% but I don't think this means that you have a 10% chance for every individual pull. If you want to pull SS equipment wait until you have 30 unopened S-SS equipment packs before opening them. That gives you 6 pulls, each opening 5 at a time. Usually the first 2 pulls I get zero SS, maybe 1, and then I get 1 or 2 out of 5 for the 3rd and 4th pull and then maybe 1 during the 5th pull and usually zero during the last pull. Sometimes I have horrible luck and get 1 SS out of 30, but I have pulled 5 SS out of 30 quite a few times. It seems like the chances of pulling SS equipment depends on how many equipment packs are opened consecutively.

                  I used to open up all 3 S-SS equipment packs after every season, but I ended up pulling far fewer SS equipment overall by opening them 3 at a time compared to 30 at a time.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by SunDevilStang View Post
                    OffTheWall

                    Something seems broken. I’m now at 4 SS and 263 S. That’s a clip of 1.4% and not a small sample size. Are certain accounts targeted to not get good odds? For example, are my odds lower than average because I haven’t spent money recently? Something is definitely off, so curious what happens behind the scenes that could cause the real results to be so drastically different from the published results?
                    So I managed to save up 50 more S-SS grade equipment packs before the end of the live season reward X2 event and I just opened them all. Zero SS grade equipment. Zero out of 50 consecutively opened S-SS equipment packs with supposedly 10% odds. Such a waste of time, why bother?

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